Options/futures data for 30th AUG (EOD)

Summary:

1. High OI at 5400PE provides support for this market. Only issue is we are starting the series with a high PCR of 1.43. Nifty tops out at PCR of 1.8 and above as seen in June (21st @5370+) and few days back in August 5540. So we will be actively watching for that.

2. Lower level puts have added a lot of OI. Looking at higher OI @5400PE & 5200PE - compared to 5300PE, my suspicion is big money has done some put backspread - that means sell 1 lot of 5400PE and buy 2 lots of 5200PE. This guess is based on current data - of course things can change if Nifty scales 5485/5510.

Nifty Futures:

3.23Cr OI up 0.5%

Banknifty Futures:

24L OI up 1.2%

Options/futures data for 27th AUG (EOD)

Summary:

1. Close to 90L OI at 5400PE provides good support for this market. Although I remember in May we had something like 74L OI at 5200 on the very first day of series but still Market fell to 4800. The way the market makers made the fall was by adding calls at 5200/5100 gradually and FIIs had bought huge amount of lower level (5000/4900/4800 ...) puts.

2. 5400CEs too added 12L on Friday! That's not good at all.

Nifty futures:

3.2Cr OI up 2%

Banknifty Futures:

24L OI up 0.84%

The only way scepticism in the market goes away is if 5510 is reached in a couple of days. 5465 & 5485-5490 will still provide resistance.

Options/futures data for 25th Aug (EOD)

Summary:

1. Well the 5500PEs are under pressure for past two days. So far 26L have unwound in last two days. Its upto the rest of writers holding the 65L OI to defend Nifty.

2. 10L 5500CEs added today. Will there be a run on these guys tomorrow?

Monthly profile:

Nifty back below monthly VAH. If 5465-5450 range is defended tomorrow's expiry can be closer to 5500.

VWAP for entire month as of last Friday was 5445 (source Karvy newsletter). So 5431 and 5445 are very important levels for bulls.

Options/futures data for 24rd Aug (EOD)

Summary:
1. Not very big change in options front. The only highlight of yesterday was 11L puts covering at 5500. I still don't see it a big alarming factor until another 20-30L 5500PEs cover. Only if that happens Nifty might go down and expire lower.
2. 5500CE writers are not covering much so expiry at my previous expectation of 5480-5520 is still valid.

Nifty futures:
AUG: 2.4Cr OI down 18% (55L shares cut)
SEP: 1.67Cr OI up 58% (61L shares added) -- again evidence of strong rollovers for the last 3-4 days with premium for next series.

Banknifty futures:
AUG: 19L Oi down 28% (7.7L shares cut)
SEP: 15L OI up 86% (7L shares added) -- discount seen yesterday in rollovers for next series.

Options/futures data for 23rd Aug (EOD)

Summary:

1. Well one thing is clear -- the expiry level will be now determined by what the the 5500CE writers will do in next couple of days. If more 5500CEs cover -- stronger expiry above 5500 (say 5560-5580).

2. The way puts are being added - its getting scarier now. "Too much is too bad" is the right one that comes to my mind. PCR (Put-Call-Ratio) has gone up to 1.72 yesterday. Once it reaches 1.8-2.0 range the market upside will be capped and one can look for reversal from there.

The last time we hit PCR of 1.8+ was on June 21st when Nifty reached 5370+ (futures) but promptly reversed the same day and 24th June expiry happened at 5320.

Nifty Futures:

AUG: 2.95Cr OI down 8% (26L shares cut from OI)

SEP: 1.05Cr OI up 45% (33L shares added to OI)

Is this one of the HIGHEST OI ever on Nifty? I will compare this to Jan 2008 OI by tomorrow

Banknifty Futures:

27L OI down 6.2% (1.8L shares cut from OI)

8L OI up 27% (1.7L shares added to OI)

For chartists - Banknifty had a double top with RSI divergence on 15-min chart yesterday.

Options/futures data for 11th Aug (EOD)

Nifty MP Chart

"Volumes speak volumes about the market ..."

OI Analysis -- Silence of the Bears

Quick Summary:

1. First sign of blood tasting by bears -- 5400CE addition of 10L and 5400PE addition of 9L.

2. The good part is still 5300PEs have a monster OI of 1.1Cr which will put a floor to this market for now. Also at 5400 PE/CE ratio not totally favoring bears at the moment. So any gap down near 5350/5330 might lead to an intraday rise close to 5400.

3. Lower level put addition seen last week @5200/5100

Nifty Futures:

3.34Cr OI up 2.6% -- Monster OI for sure!

Banknifty Futures:

30.6L OI down 1.8% -- well some folks are in big profits and they probably booked out.

In US markets -- Bears have woken up from hibernation

"Support" are you there?.... Hello...

Options/futures data for 10th Aug (EOD)

Quick Summary:

1. 5400-5500 range is tightening with calls adding @5500 and puts adding at 5400

2. What is noteworthy is 5500PEs are steadily adding for the last week or so. Indicating bulls are very much alive and just waiting for some +ve global cues to take the market above 5500

3. Yesterday was a weird day with all of the options adding to OI. May be before FOMC there was lot of hedging going on.

Nifty Futures:

3.25Cr OI up 1.5% -- FIIs sold in index futures - may be shorts added?

Banknifty Futures:

31.2L OI up 1.3%

Options/futures data for 9th Aug (EOD)

Quick Summary:

1. 5500PE/5400PE together added 12L to OI.

2. 5500CE/5400CE together together didn't add much to OI. Even no 5600CEs were written.

Bias is towards upside but we need follow up covering of 5500CE and addition of 5500PE to sustainable rise above 5500.

Nifty Futures:

3.2Cr OI up 3.5% (11L added to OI)

Banknifty Futures:

30L OI 1.8% (0.5L added to OI)

Options/Futures review for the week that ended on Aug6th

Quick Summary:

1. Lets look at what is happening in the range 5400-5550. 5400PE/5400PE together have added 47L (34L+13L) of OI. Whereas 5400CE/5500CE together have added 15L (4L+11L) of OI. So bias is strongly on the upside - with ratio of puts vs calls in the 5400-5500 range = 3:1.

2. Almost 1Cr of OI at 5300PE puts a strong support for this market. Even 5400PE has an OI of 81L which provides immediate support.

A shot at 5500+ can't be ruled out this week if Global cues are good. Even if Global cues are bad it would be difficult to see the market going down below 5300.

Nifty Futures:

3.09Cr OI down 1.8%

Banknifty Futures:

30.3L OI up .028% -- Open Interest was up 11% in the first 2 days of the week and after that some profit booking was seen on 4th Aug. Last two days momentum has slowed down/reversed.

Options data for Aug 4th (EOD)

1. Options data has turned bullish for past 3 days with 5400PEs adding 33L to OI. 5400 becomes strong support with 80L puts vs 45L calls

2. Call writing @5500 has reduced but the total of 77L means it wont be easy task to conquer 5500.

3. Interestingly, 12L puts are written @5500 in last 2 days. Addition of higher level puts is surely bullish.

Any rise above 5500 without Options OI support will not be sustainable.

Nifty futures:

OI 3.12Cr up 3% -- 10L Shares added

Banknifty futures:

29L OI down 4% -- Some profit booking there.

Options data for Aug 3rd (EOD)

Last two days lot options activity has increased around the immediate support 5400 & immediate resistance 5500.

For last two days:

1. 5400PE OI increased by almost 21L. So 5400 is the first support (but can't say its a very strong support yet) with 68L puts vs 53L calls

2. 5500CE OI increased by 12L. So climbing 5500 would not be a very easy task.

3. Lower level puts keep getting added @5200, 5100, 5000 -- for hedging.

4. The pace of 5600CE addition has decreased -- after the 11L added on the Friday (22-16 price range), next two days has seen addition of only 5L addition (price range still 22-16).

Effectively last two days the two big money options bets were that market will not fall below 5400 and will not rise above 5500.

One should be monitoring 5600CEs everyday because @the price of 22-16 rupees is not pricing in any sharp upswing that can come if Global cues are good.

Nifty Futures:

3.02Cr OI up 9% -- we saw this in Banknifty last month -- Fairly big OI addition after several gap ups + small consolidation and then breakout. Will Nifty also follow the same path this month?

Banknifty Futures:

30.5L OI up 10% in last 2 days.

The Humongous OI is getting uncomfortable for me to digest. There sure is more room to run up and touch Banknifty all time high of 10700+ But there is no doubt in my mind that a 300+ point correction is coming in Banknifty. The question is whether we will touch 10700+ before the correction or after?

Options/futures data for 30th Jul (EOD)

Top 5 traded options data courtesy - http://www.stocksfortune.com/FOReport

Rest of data manually queried from NSE website.

1. From the Options OI GIF its clear that - current resistance is 5500 with 64L OI and 5300 support with 75L OI

2. What's bad is the shameless addition of 8L to 12L Calls at 5600/5500/5400 on the very first day of the series. Bad boys seem to be very eager to write those calls.

3. For last 2 series bulls have been pampered a lot and they seem to have forgotten what puts mean and why OI increase for lower level puts is bad.

Here are some observations on increase in OI of lower puts:

i) 5100PE - 50% OI increase in last 2 days -- total OI now 52L (This was 48L on Friday after June expiry with Nifty @ 5269 - well below current level)

ii) 5000PE - 35% OI increase in last 2 days -- total OI now 49L (This was 52L on Friday after June expiry)

iii) 4900PE - 71% OI increase in last 2 days -- total OI now 26L (This was 27L on Friday after June expiry)

Conclusion: Options activity as of now is 'slightly bearish' with "EAGERNESS" displayed by call writers @5600/5500/5400 and put buyers @5100/5000/4900.

Sometimes these can be fake moves but can't just ignore it as a 'wolf cry'.

Futures data:

=========

Nifty: 2.77Cr OI up 6% (15L shares added to OI)

Banknifty: 27.5L OI up 1% ( 0.3L added to OI)

Top 3 Banknifty components--

1. SBIN - OI up 20% in on Friday (OI up 50% from its July lows) -- currently @52-wk high

2. HDFCBANK - OI up 7% on Friday (OI up 50% from its July lows) -- currently @52-wk high

3. ICICIBANK - OI up 4% on Friday (OI uo 33% from July lows) -- will react to results posted on Saturday

Banknifty looks 'optically strong' at the moment but but big OI at 52-wk high can cause vertical drop if a serious correction starts.