Options/futures data for 23rd Sep (EOD)

Summary:

1. Last 3 seessions have touched 6000+ and in every session are calls written @6100 and Nifty prices rejected at 6045. This makes me believe that 6100CE writers are confident bunch of writers. So as of now 6100 is the resistance

2. Action of 6000 from last two days is suggesting that bears are trying to claim 6000 and have been successful to some extent - with almost 18L calls written in last 2 days. Today there were not much 6000PEs written - so bulls are not confident about claiming 6000 yet.

3. 5900 is right now the rock solid support with 95L @5900PE vs 42L @5900CE. The problem with so high PCR that if 5900PEs are forced to cover with a sharp drop - the market doesn't have great support from 5800PEs as they are on a covering spree.

4. I still don't like 5800PEs being covered.

5. PCR reduced from 1.92 to 1.87 - but still not out of the woods yet. The high PCR is already weighing on Nifty as its struggling to close above 6000 - although lower levels are being defended.

Nifty Futures:

SEP: 3.3Cr OI down 5% (17L Shares cut from OI)

OCT: 80L OI up 13% (9.5L shares added to OI) -- Almost of 50% OI cut was profit booking. We are seeing this for last 3 days. More profit booking from SEP and less rollover to OCT.

Banknifty Futures:

SEP: 21L OI down 5.6% (1.25L shares cut)

OCT: 3.9L OI up 8.6% (0.3L shares added) -- Again profit booking in SEP and less rollover

Summary:

1. 6100CE writing has slowed down but nonetheless quite a bit is written in last 3 days. So call writers seeing 6100 as a reasonable top for this market - for now!

2. Action at 6000 is yesterday was very interesting. Both bulls and bears are actively trying to claim it. 11L 6000CEs added and 10L 6000PEs added. If market stagnates around here - both could be right. I doubt though.

3. With 91L puts vs 39L calls - 5900 is an extremely strong support as of now

4. Suspicious action at 5800PEs continues. Only next week I can declare it as profit booking because ATR is so high that if market cracks - we can get to 5800 in 2 sessions. Is that why nobody wants to write 5800PEs?

5. PCR today? 1.92!!! - Then only time PCR went 2.0+ was in Jan 2008. Next two trading sessions will tell us whether PCR is an important metric or not.

Nifty Futures:

SEP: 3.46Cr OI down 6% (22L shares cut) -- last 2 days OI shed 12%. Take profits before they are gone!!

OCT: 70L OI up 12% (7.8L shares added) -- So only 1/3rd rolled over, rest all - profit booked!

Banknifty Futures:

SEP: 22L OI down 2% -- OI is now down 18% from its breakout point.

OCT: 3.6L OI up 27% -- Not all of the OI cut from OCT was rolled over. So longs not coming at these levels - yet.

Options/futures data for 21st Sep (EOD)

Summary:

1. Call writers showing some confidence from the intraday selloff and wrote decent amount of calls at 6100 & small amount of calls at 6000.

2. Bulls are relentlessly writing puts at each level - 20L added to 6000PE & 5900PE - As of now 5900 is the support for this market - If market reverses due to high PCR these adventurous put writers will be forced to cover.

3. What I don't like is put covering at 5800. In fact if bulls are so confident - why wouldn't they add another 20L to 5800PE? Its almost free money for bulls. If they think they can defend 5900 - then 5800 puts should be written, not covered.

4. PCR - the Nifty nemesis is at 1.86. With yesterday's 1.84 PCR we had a decent intraday sell off. I am still skeptical of 6000+ holding unless PCR cools off.

Nifty Futures:

SEP: 3.68Cr OI down 6% -- 6000 seems to a good psychological level - hence profit booking

OCT: 63L OI up 20%

Banknifty futures:

22.8L - OI down 6% -- Relentless profit booking. From last 1 week OI is down 16%. We saw similar pattern in August close to expiry when Banknifty touched 11100 levels and the following week Banknifty fell almost 500 points. If longs don't get added these levels - then I am very skeptical of this level sustaining.

Options/futures data for 20th Sep (EOD)

Summary:

1. "Snake and ladder" game going on between bulls and call writers. Bulls taking the ladder route and call writers have been getting the snakes - almost everyday.

2. On a serious note - the ferocity of bulls is such that on Friday I was looking at 10L 5900CEs added and was happily announcing - "OK someone is willing to write calls at 5900". Well the joy was short lived! All of the 10L 5900CEs were covered today. And if that was not enough some of the 6000CEs were covered too. Now call writers have climbed one step more - writing 14L calls at 6100. -- May GOD bless those bears.

3. All of the Put action was at 5900 with 25L puts added there - makes 5900 the immediate support. And with 81L puts vs 52L calls - makes 5800 next support

4. PCR has gone through the roof. Its now 1.84!!! - I dare say tomorrow we could reverse because this market seems to be making mockery of history, statistics and those who are not long!

Nifty Futures:

SEP: 3.91Cr - OI up 1%

OCT: 52L - OI up 16%

Banknifty Futures:

24L - OI down 1.5% -- Banknifty OI is down 10% from the point it breakout last week on Monday. If short covering doesn't give way to longs, it would be a cause for concern.

Options/futures data for 17th Sep (EOD)

Summary:

1. The call writing that started at 5900/6000 a couple of days back has continued! So atleast some call writers are convinced that they can manage to stop this market from rising further.

2. Puts are being written only at 5900/5800 but 5700PE/5600PEs are being covered for last 3-4 days. Those who wrote these options want to book profits because if market falls 100+ points they will lose profits

3. 5800 now seems to be decent support with 78L calls vs 57L puts.

4. PCR has gone up from 1.72 to 1.75 because marginally more puts were added at 5900/5800 compared to calls

Nifty Futures:

SEP: 3.88Cr OI down 1.4% - profit booking

OCT: 45L OI up 12%

Banknifty Futures:

24.7L - OI down 6.3% -- Banknifty has shed almost 10% OI in last week - which is pretty much what was added the Friday before the big Gap up. Now that shorts are covered we need to see if longs get added.

Nifty MP charts

S&P500 fake move above 1130 today screwed all world markets!

No explanations needed -- just pictures are enough!

And when was the last fake move? The day when Nifty hit 5350 -- ES futures went down below the sacrosanct level of 1040 (around 1:30 or something).

Is this leg of Nifty's run done and consolidation will begin next few weeks?