In case Nifty has a blowout top this month ...

In Jan Nifty did only 100 points in first 21 days and surprisingly nobody complained because their favorite mid-cap/small cap was zooming 10-20-30% in just a matter of days!

Note the big correction months:

1. July 2009

+ 2 months

2. OCT 2009

+ 2 months

3. Jan 2010

+ 2 months

4. April-May 2010

+ 2 months

5. August-Sep 2010?

Assuming we will have a blow off rise like Jan - I have my stock picks in FnO:

1. The infra pack -- GMRINFRA, GVKPIL, IVRCLINFRA? JPASSOCIAT, PUNJLLOYD

2. Underperforming bank - IDBI

3. Cement pick - INDIACEM

4. Random picks - FINANTECH, GTOFFSHORE, ICSA, ONMOBILE, INDIAINFO, MLL --> either they will rise big or fall big!

If Nifty fails to cross 5450-5500 -- these will look like "wishful thinking". Its better to trade long on such "expecting a reversal" kind of stocks only when Nifty crosses 5470-5480

I am making a list of shorts too - the shorts are mostly very risky/very strong uptrending stocks like ASIANPAINT, TITAN, BAJAJ-AUTO types - those which have announced spectacular results - but they already ran up so much that I am expecting sell off when Nifty corrects. The confirmation would be when Nifty breaks down below 5350 - the shorts must be played.

Options/futures data for new series

New series - new hopes ...

Next series interesting observations:

Nifty futures OI:

August series starts off with OI of 2.6Cr whereas July series began with an OI of 2.96Cr

OI deficiency this series was due to profit booking/long unwinding (21L futures contracts) seen a few days back - on 26th July - in the price range 5463-5422.

Banknifty futures OI:

August series starts off with a MONSTROUS OI 27L compared to just about 19L on first day of July series.

This to me is a bearish sign especially because most of the rollovers have come above 10000. There were at least 4 gap ups on the way up to 10000. So watch out for air pockets top POP. If a serious selling starts in Banknifty it could tank 300+ points in 1 day.

Options/futures data for 28th Jul (EOD)

Nifty Futures:

July: 1.38Cr OI down 31% (62L shares cut from OI)

Aug: 2.1Cr OI up 40% (60L shares added to OI)

Total OI on D-1 in June expiry (June+July): 4.1Cr vs now 3.5Cr (July+Aug)

Banknifty Futures:

July: 9.2L OI down 34% (4.8L shares cut from OI)

Aug: 20.7L OI up 43% (6.3L shares added to OI)

Total BN OI on D-1 June expiry: 24.5L vs now 29.2L (July+Aug)

Options/futures data for 27th Jul (EOD)

From options action:

1. 5500 now looking like Himalayas with 1.2Cr Calls vs 16L puts

2. 5400 had confusing action 7.8L 5400CEs covered looked fine but almost 9L puts covered too! Fake move? Profit booking since decay mostly over?

Nifty Futures:

July: 2Cr OI down 22% (58L shares cut from OI)

Aug: 1.5Cr OI up 63% (58L shares cut from OI)

Nifty futures Total OI (Jun+Jul) on D-2 in June was 3.7Cr and now its 3.5Cr

The difference is due to 19L shares that got squared off day before yesterday. As of now I assume it was profit booking.

Banknifty Futures:

Jul: 14L OI down 28% (5.5L shares cut from OI)

Aug: 14.3L OI up 81% (6.5L shares added to OI)

Banknifty Total OI (Jun+Jul) on D-2 of June expiry was 23L now its 28.3L (July+Aug)

Options/futures data for 26th Jul (EOD)

Not much changed from Options point of view:

1. 5500 still a mountain to climb with 1.2Cr Calls/16L puts. What's very interesting is the price of 5500CE went down below 10 bucks. Somebody who bought around 10 will make decent profits if Nifty makes run towards 5450-5470
2. 5400 looks ok support with 68L calls/74L puts. If expiry above 5400 is a certainty - more calls need to be covered/puts written there.

Nifty futures:

July: 2.58Cr OI down 15% (45L shares cut from OI) ==> Opportunistic short covering?

Aug: 92L OI up 40% (26L shares added to OI)

Banknifty futures:

July: 19.6L OI down 15% (3.8L shares cut from OI)

Aug: 7.9L OI up 68% (3.2L shares added to OI)

If LT delivers good results today look for possible run ups in Capital goods stocks that were beaten down yesterday :

JPASSOCIAT

GMRINFRA

GVKPIL

PUNJLLOYD

EKC

RIIL

http://finance.indiamart.com/markets/bse/bseCG.html

Options data for 23rd Jul (EOD)

Notable points from Friday's Options action:

1. 5500 is still tough to achieve this expiry - 1.23Cr OI is decently big

2. 5400 puts adding 10L+ and 5400 Call covering - strengthens the case for 5400+ expiry

Nifty Futures-

1. OI:

July: 3.03Cr OI down 4.2%

August: 65L OI up 33%

2. Rollovers:

13.4L shares cut from July

16.5L shares added to August -- Rollovers on the higher side

Comparison with June - the Friday before expiry we had Total OI of 3.3Cr whereas now the OI is almost 3.7Cr - almost 13% bigger now!

BankNifty Futures-

1. OI

July: 23L OI down 0.17%

August: 4.7L OI up 36%

2. Rollovers:

0.17L shares cut from July

1.25L shares added to August - Definitely heavy rollovers!

Comparison with June - the Friday before expiry we had total OI (June+July) of 21L whereas now the total OI of 28L (July+August)

From http://oitracker.blogspot.com/

1. HIGH OPEN INTEREST AT MARKET TOPS IS A BEARISH SIGNAL IF THE PRICE DROP IS SUDDEN, SINCE THIS WILL FORCE MANY 'WEAK' LONGS TO LIQUIDATE. OCCASIONALLY, SUCH CONDITIONS SET OFF A SELF-FEEDING, DOWNWARD SPIRAL.
2. AN UNUSUALLY HIGH OR RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN A BULL MARKET IS A DANGER SIGNAL. WHEN A RISING TREND OF OPEN INTEREST BEGINS TO REVERSE, EXPECT A BEAR TREND TO GET UNDERWAY.

Options data for 22nd Jul

Options data shows all sorts of fireworks yesterday - specifically action at 5400 was worth looking at:

17L calls covered and almost 11L puts written - indicates short covering. But still @5400 there are 73L calls vs 66L puts - only a follow up call covering/put addition would make Nifty stronger.

With 1.28Cr of calls @5500 - only a miracle would take Nifty above that level. (before this expiry)