Summary:
1. Finally it looks like 6100CE writers have won the game. The addition of 33L puts we saw at 6100PE in first two days of this week was promptly reversed - 32L puts were unwound!
2. Action at 6000 was not any different. Massive call writing and put covering. The 6000PE which was getting covered for last 3 days and I kept on writing that "I don't like this put covering" - now we get the reason. Put writers were exactly wary of a fall happening just before the expiry.
3. So expiry looks to be closer to 6000 now. May be a 20-30 point range of 5970-6030 range depending on who has more muscle power whether 6000PE or 6000CE writers. My guess for 6030 on upside comes from the fact that yesterday 20L 60000CEs were added at average price of 34.
Nifty Futures:
SEP: 1.58Cr OI down 25% (54L shares cut)
OCT: 2.2Cr OI up 25% (45L shares added) -- OI still less than 3.8-4Cr in the middle of SEP series. We will know EOD what the final rollover number will be.
Banknifty Futures:
SEP: 11.6L OI down 20% (3L shares cut)
OCT: 12.9L OI up (4L shares added to OI) -- OI is still way less than the peak of 28-29L. We will know EOD.
Monthly Nifty Chart:
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