Source: https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_122310.pdf
1. In Barron’s look-ahead piece, not one strategist sees the prospect for a
market decline. This is called group-think. Moreover, the percentage of
brokerage house analysts and economists to raise their 2011 GDP
forecasts has risen substantially. Out of 49 economists surveyed, 35 say
the U.S. economy will outperform the already upwardly revised GDP
forecasts, only 14 say we will underperform. This is capitulation of
historical proportions.
2. The weekly fund flow data from the ICI showed not only massive outflows, but in aggregate, retail investors withdrew a RECORD net $8.6 billion from
bond funds during the week ended December 15 (on top of the $1.7 billion
of outflows in the prior week). Maybe now all the bond bears will shut their
traps over this “bond-bubble” nonsense.
3. Investors Intelligence now shows the bull share heading up to 58.8% from
55.8% a week ago, and the bear share is up to 20.6% from 20.5%. So
bullish sentiment has now reached a new high for the year and is now the
highest since 2007 ― just ahead of the market slide.
4. It may pay to have a look at Dow 1929-1949 analog lined up with January
2000. We are getting very close to the May 1940 sell-off when Germany
invaded France. As a loyal reader and trusted friend notified us yesterday,
“fighting” war may be similar to the sovereign debt war raging in Europe
today. (Have a look at the jarring article on page 20 of today’s FT —
Germany is not immune to the contagion gripping Europe.)
5. What about the S&P 500 dividend yield, and this comes courtesy of an old pal from Merrill Lynch who is currently an investment advisor. Over the
course of 2010, numerous analysts were saying that people must own
stocks because the dividend yields will be more than that of the 10-year
Treasury. But alas, here we are today with the S&P 500 dividend yield at
2% and the 10-year T-note yield at 3.3%.
From a historical standpoint, the yield on the S&P 500 is very low ― too low, in fact. This smacks of a market top and underscores the point that the
market is too optimistic in the sense that investors are willing to forgo yield
because they assume that they will get the return via the capital gain. In
essence, dividend yields are supposed to be higher than the risk free yield
in a fairly valued market because the higher yield is “supposed to”
compensate the investor for taking on extra risk. The last time S&P yieldswere around this level was in the summer of 2000, and we know what
happened shortly after that. When the S&P yield gets to its long-term
average of 4.35%, maybe even a little higher, then stocks will likely be a
long-term buy.
6. The equity market in gold terms has been plummeting for about a decade
and will continue to do so. When measured in Federal Reserve Notes, the
Dow has done great. But there has been no market recovery when
benchmarked against the most reliable currency in the world. Back in
2000, it took over 40oz of gold to buy the Dow; now it takes a little more
than 8oz. This is typical of secular bear markets and this ends when the
Dow can be bought with less than 2oz of gold. Even then, an undershoot
could very well take the ratio to 1:1.
7. As Bob Farrell is clearly indicating in his work, momentum and market
breadth have been lacking. The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are
making 52-week highs is declining even though the index continues to
make new 52-week highs.
8. Stocks are overvalued at the present levels. For December, the Shiller P/E
ratio says stocks are now trading at a whopping 22.7 times earnings! In
normal economic periods, the Shiller P/E is between 14 and 16 times
earnings. Coming out of the bursting of a credit bubble, the P/E ratio
historically is 12. Coming out of a credit bubble of the magnitude we just
had, the P/E should be at single digits.
9. The potential for a significant down-leg in home prices is being
underestimated. The unsold existing inventory is still 80% above the
historical norm, at 3.7 million. And that does not include the ‘shadow’
foreclosed inventory. According to some superb research conducted by the
Dallas Fed, completing the mean-reversion process would entail a further
23% decline in real home prices from here. In a near zero percent inflation
environment, that is one massive decline in nominal terms. Prices may not
hit their ultimate bottom until some point in 2015.
10.Arguably the most understated, yet significant, issue facing both U.S.
economy and U.S. markets is the escalating fiscal strains at the state and
local government levels, particularly those jurisdictions with uncomfortably
high pension liabilities. Have a look at Alabama town shows the cost of
neglecting a pension fund on the front page of the NYT as well as Chapter
9 weighed in pension woes on page C1 on WSJ.
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