Monday, November 1, 2010

TITAN - getting close to parabolic blow off

Amazing rally in TITAN right?


I am quoting a reference from Karl Denninger about parabolic blow offs:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2183011


There's a classical "3-wave" parabolic blow-off pattern that I've repeatedly noted in certain "high flying" stocks.  It showed up in 1998 and 1999 too, and in virtually every case it leads to a crash in that stock's price.  In most of these cases we can measure the depth of the collapse (at minimum) too.
Example AAPL during Nasdaq crash of 1999:
Some important points here on this pattern and making sure you're looking at it correctly.  The rules are.
  • Each move higher must come at a higher slope.
  • Each move higher must retrace below the trendline before the next spike higher occurs.
  • It is permissible for the price to consolidate in some sort of flat, or even move higher at a lower slope, between moves.
  • There should be three such moves.  Not two, four or more, three.
You short the break of the third one with a stop at whatever your pain threshold is if you're wrong.
The target on the short is the base of the first move higher.


Another expample - CSCO


And how does Titan look like?


What about Valuations?
At the current price of Rs 3,540, the stock is trading at a multiple of 46.4 times its trailing 12-months earnings and 32 times our estimated FY13 earnings. However despite the fact that we would now have to revise these estimates upwards, we believe the stock does not present a profit potential even from a 2-3 years perspective. As such, we have a cautious view on the same. - Equitymaster.com


Right now I am watching the parabolic phase 3 blow off to break that trendline. And I have no doubt in my mind that this will crash 20-30% from here once the operators are done with their bullshit.

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